Spring Arrived. So Did the Buyers.

April surprised me.

Going into the month, my attention was on inventory accumulation — active listings had been climbing steadily since mid-March, and the weekly signal was showing more listings entering the market than buyers were absorbing. I expected a solid April based on the pending contract pipeline, but I had penciled in the low end of my 220–240 range. The final number came in at 223 — and more importantly, it came in ahead of April 2025's 204 sales, making it the first month of 2026 to beat the prior year.

That's worth pausing on. Q1 closed with a cumulative 18.7% deficit versus 2025. April didn't erase that gap, but it changed the direction of the story. Through April, contracts written YTD have now crossed into positive territory — up 1.2% versus the same period last year. The pipeline is no longer running behind.

Prices are still soft. April's citywide median of $530,000 sits 3.6% below April 2025's $550,000 — but it's the closest any month this year has come to matching the prior year's median. Whether that represents stabilization or a one-month variance, I'm not ready to call. But the direction is encouraging.

The broader context matters here. A year ago, buyers were pausing — a new administration, tariff uncertainty, and a general wait-and-see posture defined spring 2025. This April, uncertainty hasn't disappeared. The Iran situation and rising energy prices are real. But buyers are moving despite it. Entry-level sales grew through Q1 even as those buyers are most exposed to consumer price pressure — that's a behavioral signal worth noting. The stock market, which functions as a rough proxy for investment confidence, has remained largely unaffected. People aren't waiting for clarity. They're transacting.

The inventory story is a separate chapter, and we'll get to it. But April's headline is straightforward: spring arrived, and the market responded.

The Numbers That Need Context

75093 — West Plano April was 75093's strongest month of the year — 41 sales (+17%), $925,000 median (+3%), 12-day DOM. For the first time in 2026, volume and price moved in the right direction simultaneously. The luxury signal is real: April's notable transaction was a Willow Bend Lakes estate that sold in a day, and a $21.5M listing is currently active in the ZIP — a new record sale if it closes. The property next door sold for eight figures in 2025. That kind of activity speaks to where confidence in Plano luxury actually sits.

75025 — Central-North Plano The +50% volume swing looks dramatic. It isn't — this ZIP has posted significant April swings for several years running. This month's 48 sales are consistent with pre-pandemic norms. Prices held at $570,000, down just 3%.

75074 — East Plano Volume down 40% from last April, but last April was an outlier high for this ZIP. Monthly sales here have ranged from 25 to 42 homes over the past year; this month landed at the floor. The median tells only part of the story: Plano's lowest sale last month was a 75074 fixer-upper at $165,000; its highest was a 1.6-acre estate that sold in a day for $1.15M. When a ZIP spans that range, the monthly median moves around. The market is functioning.

What 1 Day on Market Tells You About West Plano Luxury

This property sold in 2025 — one of that year's top five residential transactions in Plano. It came back to market in 2026 and sold in a single day, this time for $100,000 more than its 2025 sale price.

Willow Bend Lakes consistently ranks among the fastest-selling neighborhoods in Plano, and this sale reinforces why. Fully renovated, move-in ready, no decisions left for the buyer. In West Plano's luxury tier, that combination — the right neighborhood, the right condition, accurate pricing — still produces immediate results regardless of what's happening in the broader market.

The luxury tier in context: April closed with 10 sales at $1.5M or above, representing $21.3M of Plano's $144.4M in total sales volume last month. That's 4% of transactions accounting for 15% of total dollar volume — a consistent reminder that the luxury tier punches well above its weight in this market.

Inventory Built in April. Here's What That Means.

Active listings entered April at 415 and finished the month at 473 — a 15% increase over four weeks. Most weeks added to the pool. That's the spring listing wave arriving on schedule, but it came with a catch: buyers didn't fully absorb it.

This is worth understanding correctly. Spring is often cited as the best time to list — and in one sense it is, because buyer activity is highest. But the same season that draws motivated sellers also produces the market's most competitive inventory environment. Buyers this April prioritized fresh listings. The median DOM for closed sales in April was 18 days — but the median DOM for active listings is currently around 30. That gap tells the real story: the homes that closed quickly were the well-priced, well-presented ones.

The cancellations and expirations tell a related story. At 265 YTD — up 20% from the same period last year — sellers who aren't finding buyers are pulling listings rather than reducing prices. That's actually functioning as a pressure valve for the market. Think of it like a retailer managing overstock: when supply outpaces demand, prices have to adjust or inventory gets pulled. In real estate, cancelled listings reduce the active count and prevent a glut from forming. The homes that remain are either priced correctly or working toward it.

The weekly picture tells you exactly when the shift happened. Weeks 10–14 saw contracts meeting or exceeding net new listings — the encouraging spring signal noted in the March report. Then Weeks 15, 16, and 18 posted listing surges that buyers didn't match. That's the inventory build in real time.

Months of supply reflects where things stand coming out of April. With April's stronger absorption rate as the denominator, the tier numbers moved slightly in sellers' favor compared to March — but the stratification remains sharp.

Entry-level remains genuinely scarce at 1.2 months. Mid-market at 3.3 months sits in seller’s market territory. High-end and luxury, at 4.9 and 4.6 months respectively are in the balanced market territory, which sounds encouraging until you look at what's actually transacting in those tiers. Exceptional properties are still moving fast, as this month's notable transaction illustrates. Everything else sits in the inventory pool waiting for one of two things: a price adjustment that brings in today's buyers, or new buyers entirely. New buyers enter the market every month — job changes, family transitions, relocations — not because conditions are perfect, but because their lives require it.

What Comes Next

With 265 homes under contract heading into May, closings this month should come in at a similar pace to April, possibly higher. If that holds, the YTD gap between 2026 and 2025 total sales continues to narrow. April made me cautiously optimistic that we can close much of that deficit by mid-year.

Prices are the harder question. April's $530,000 median was encouraging, but moving the needle closer to 2025's $540,000 annual median will require more activity in the high-end tier — more homes above $750,000 finding buyers, not just the exceptional ones. The ingredients are there: 75093 is showing real momentum and luxury confidence is evident. Whether that translates into broader high-end volume in May and June is something I'll be watching most closely.

As always, the weekly Plano market updates track these indicators in real time as they develop.